{"id":5003,"date":"2026-10-24T06:25:12","date_gmt":"2026-10-24T06:25:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/academicsolidarity.com\/?p=5003"},"modified":"2026-10-24T06:25:22","modified_gmt":"2026-10-24T06:25:22","slug":"goc-ile-suc-arasinda-bir-iliski-var-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/academicsolidarity.com\/?p=5003&lang=tr","title":{"rendered":"G\u00f6\u00e7 ile su\u00e7 aras\u0131nda bir ili\u015fki var m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

G\u00f6\u00e7menlerin su\u00e7 istatistiklerindeki oran\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilirken<\/em> ya\u015f, cinsiyet, gelir, e\u011fitim ve ya\u015fan\u0131lan b\u00f6lge gibi de\u011fi\u015fkenler dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u00f6\u00e7, Avrupa\u2019da son y\u0131llar\u0131n en tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 siyasi ve toplumsal konular\u0131ndan biri. \u00d6zellikle g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin su\u00e7 oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddias\u0131, kamuoyunda s\u0131k s\u0131k g\u00fcndeme geliyor (https:\/\/www.dw.com\/tr\/almanyada-ger%C3%A7ekten-yabanc%C4%B1lar-daha-m%C4%B1-%C3%A7ok-su%C3%A7-i%C5%9Fliyor\/a-79657016<\/a>). Baz\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin su\u00e7 istatistiklerinde daha fazla temsil edildi\u011fini belirterek g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fc bir g\u00fcvenlik sorunu olarak de\u011ferlendirirken, baz\u0131lar\u0131 da bu iddialar\u0131n \u00f6nyarg\u0131lardan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor. G\u00f6\u00e7 ile su\u00e7 aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekten bir ili\u015fki var m\u0131?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dikkat edilmesi gereken \u00f6nemli bir prensip var: \u0130ki de\u011fi\u015fken aras\u0131nda istatistiksel bir ili\u015fki bulunmas\u0131, birinin di\u011ferine neden oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Almanya Federal Kriminal Dairesinin (Bundeskriminalamt, BKA) 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 polis su\u00e7 istatistiklerine g\u00f6re, yabanc\u0131lar hukukuna ili\u015fkin ihlaller hari\u00e7 tutuldu\u011funda su\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphelilerinin %35,5’i Alman vatanda\u015f\u0131 olmayan ki\u015filerden olu\u015fuyor. \u015eiddet su\u00e7lar\u0131nda ise yabanc\u0131 vatanda\u015flar\u0131n \u015f\u00fcpheliler i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 %42,9’a ula\u015f\u0131yor (https:\/\/www.bundesregierung.de\/breg-de\/aktuelles\/polizeiliche-kriminalstatistik-2025-2422020<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu oranlar, yabanc\u0131 vatanda\u015flar\u0131n Almanya n\u00fcfusundaki paylar\u0131ndan belirgin bi\u00e7imde daha y\u00fcksek. Fakat bu istatistiklerden hareketle g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin do\u011falar\u0131 gere\u011fi daha fazla su\u00e7 i\u015flemeye e\u011filimli olduklar\u0131 sonucuna varamay\u0131z. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu rakamlar\u0131n neyi \u00f6l\u00e7t\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve hangi fakt\u00f6rlerden etkilendi\u011fini anlamam\u0131z gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6ncelikle polis istatistikleri, su\u00e7 i\u015fledi\u011fi mahkeme taraf\u0131ndan kesinle\u015fmi\u015f ki\u015fileri de\u011fil, su\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiyle kaydedilen ki\u015fileri g\u00f6steriyor. Her su\u00e7 polise bildirilmiyor, her \u015f\u00fcpheli su\u00e7lu bulunmuyor ve polis denetimleri toplumun t\u00fcm kesimlerine e\u015fit bi\u00e7imde da\u011f\u0131lmayabiliyor. Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda ya\u015f, cinsiyet, ekonomik durum ve ya\u015fan\u0131lan b\u00f6lge gibi fakt\u00f6rler de su\u00e7 istatistiklerini etkileyebiliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Birbiriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lan gruplar\u0131n farkl\u0131 \u00f6zelliklere sahip olmas\u0131, sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f yorumlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu nedenle ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar istatistiksel analizlerinde ya\u015f, cinsiyet, gelir, e\u011fitim ve ya\u015fan\u0131lan b\u00f6lge gibi de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin etkisini dikkate almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rlar. \u00d6rne\u011fin, gen\u00e7 erkeklerin su\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphelisi olarak kaydedilme oranlar\u0131 genellikle kad\u0131nlara ve ileri ya\u015ftaki ki\u015filere g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksektir. G\u00f6\u00e7men n\u00fcfus i\u00e7inde gen\u00e7 erkeklerin oran\u0131 da yerli n\u00fcfusa g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00f6yle bir durumda yaln\u0131zca iki grubun toplam su\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphelili\u011fi oranlar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131d\u0131r. Daha do\u011fru bir de\u011ferlendirme yapabilmek i\u00e7in benzer ya\u015f ve cinsiyetteki ki\u015filerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benzer bir durum ya\u015fan\u0131lan b\u00f6lge i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erlidir. B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehirlerde su\u00e7 oranlar\u0131 k\u0131rsal b\u00f6lgelere g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek olabilir. G\u00f6\u00e7menler de \u00e7o\u011funlukla b\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehirlerde ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in, g\u00f6\u00e7menlik ile su\u00e7 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkinin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc asl\u0131nda ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7evreden kaynaklan\u0131yor olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130statistikte bu t\u00fcr de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin etkisini dikkate alma i\u015flemine d\u00fczeltme<\/em> (adjustment) denir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00fcnih merkezli ifo Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131 Jean-Victor Alipour ve Joop Age Harm Adema, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131mlad\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada Almanya’n\u0131n 2018\u20132023 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki polis su\u00e7 istatistiklerini il\u00e7e d\u00fczeyinde incelediler (https:\/\/www.ifo.de\/publikationen\/2025\/aufsatz-zeitschrift\/steigert-migration-die-kriminalitaet-ein-datenbasierter-blick<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar \u00f6nemli bir soruya cevap arad\u0131lar: Bir b\u00f6lgede yabanc\u0131 n\u00fcfusun artmas\u0131, o b\u00f6lgedeki su\u00e7 oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor mu?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sonu\u00e7 dikkat \u00e7ekiciydi. \u0130l\u00e7elerde yabanc\u0131 n\u00fcfusun artmas\u0131 ile su\u00e7 oranlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 aras\u0131nda sistematik bir istatistiksel ili\u015fki bulunamad\u0131. Benzer sonu\u00e7lar s\u0131\u011f\u0131nmac\u0131lar i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erliydi. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada cinayet ve cinsel sald\u0131r\u0131 gibi a\u011f\u0131r su\u00e7 kategorilerinde de yabanc\u0131 n\u00fcfusun art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla sistematik bir ili\u015fki saptanmad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lara g\u00f6re yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n su\u00e7 istatistiklerinde daha fazla temsil edilmesinin \u00f6nemli a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131ndan biri, g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin su\u00e7 oranlar\u0131n\u0131n genel olarak daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu b\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehirlerde yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131yd\u0131. Ya\u015f ve cinsiyet da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131l\u0131klar da rol oynuyordu; ancak bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada b\u00f6lgesel fakt\u00f6rlerin etkisi daha belirgindi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Almanya’daki bulgular\u0131 daha iyi anlamak i\u00e7in ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerdeki ara\u015ft\u0131rmalara da bakabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri:<\/strong> Abramitzky ve arkada\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda American Economic Review: Insights<\/em> dergisinde yay\u0131mlanan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, 1870\u20132020 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki 150 y\u0131ll\u0131k n\u00fcfus say\u0131m\u0131 verilerini inceliyor (https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/articles?id=10.1257%2Faeri.20230459<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin hapsedilme oranlar\u0131, incelenen d\u00f6nem boyunca ABD do\u011fumlulara g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretmi\u015f. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin cezaevinde bulunma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ABD do\u011fumlulara g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ngiltere:<\/strong> Oxford \u00dcniversitesi Migration Observatory’nin A\u011fustos 2026’da yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeye g\u00f6re, \u0130ngiltere ve Galler’de 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda uyar\u0131 veya mahk\u00fbmiyet alanlar\u0131n %13,1’i yabanc\u0131 vatanda\u015flardan olu\u015fuyordu. Yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n yeti\u015fkin n\u00fcfustaki tahmini pay\u0131 ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %13,5’ti. Ya\u015f farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n cezaevlerindeki temsili daha da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyordu (https:\/\/migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk\/resources\/briefings\/migrants-and-crime-in-the-uk\/<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130sve\u00e7:<\/strong> \u0130sve\u00e7 Su\u00e7 \u00d6nleme Konseyinin (Br\u00e5) 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rma ise farkl\u0131 bir tablo sunuyor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada, \u0130sve\u00e7 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda do\u011fan ki\u015filerin su\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphelisi olarak kaydedilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, kendisi ve her iki ebeveyni \u0130sve\u00e7’te do\u011fan ki\u015filere g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,5 kat y\u00fcksek bulundu. \u0130sve\u00e7’te do\u011fmu\u015f ancak her iki ebeveyni yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda do\u011fmu\u015f ki\u015filerde bu oran yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,2 katt\u0131 (https:\/\/bra.se\/english\/publications\/archive\/2021-08-25-registered-offending-among-persons-of-native-and-non-native-background<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar ya\u015f, cinsiyet, gelir, e\u011fitim ve yerle\u015fim yeri gibi fakt\u00f6rlere g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltme yapt\u0131klar\u0131nda gruplar aras\u0131ndaki farklar\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak tamamen ortadan kalkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirttiler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Danimarka:<\/strong> Danimarka’n\u0131n resm\u00ee entegrasyon istatistiklerinde de baz\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7men gruplar\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek su\u00e7 oranlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2025 verilerine g\u00f6re Orta Do\u011fu, Kuzey Afrika, Pakistan ve T\u00fcrkiye’yi de kapsayan MENAPT \u00fclkelerinden gelen erkek g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin ya\u015fa g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f ceza kanunu kapsam\u0131ndaki su\u00e7 mahk\u00fbmiyeti endeksi, toplam erkek n\u00fcfus ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k iki kat\u0131yd\u0131. Ayn\u0131 k\u00f6ken grubunun Danimarka’da do\u011fmu\u015f erkek \u00e7ocuklar\u0131nda bu oran yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 katt\u0131 (https:\/\/integrationsbarometer.dk\/tal-og-analyser\/kriminalitet).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7 ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Birincisi, g\u00f6\u00e7menler veya yabanc\u0131 vatanda\u015flar her \u00fclkede ayn\u0131 su\u00e7 istatistiklerine sahip de\u011filler. Bununla birlikte, \u00fclkelerin kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 su\u00e7 g\u00f6stergelerinin birebir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmamak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130kincisi, demografik ve sosyoekonomik fakt\u00f6rlere g\u00f6re yap\u0131lan d\u00fczeltmeler sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015ftirebiliyor. \u00d6zellikle ya\u015f, cinsiyet, ekonomik durum ve yerle\u015fim yerinin etkilerini hesaba katmadan yap\u0131lan kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar, su\u00e7 ile g\u00f6\u00e7 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi oldu\u011fundan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veya zay\u0131f g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, bir g\u00f6\u00e7men grubunun su\u00e7 istatistiklerinde daha fazla temsil edilmesi ile g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcn bir \u00fclkedeki toplam su\u00e7 oran\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 ayn\u0131 \u015fey de\u011fil. G\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcn toplumsal etkisini de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in zaman i\u00e7indeki de\u011fi\u015fimleri, farkl\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7men gruplar\u0131n\u0131 ve su\u00e7 t\u00fcrlerini inceleyen ara\u015ft\u0131rmalara ihtiya\u00e7 var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu tart\u0131\u015fmada iki hatadan ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131y\u0131z: \u0130statistiksel farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelmek ve farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n nedenlerini ara\u015ft\u0131rmadan bunlar\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin kimli\u011fine ba\u011flamak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Su\u00e7 ma\u011fdurlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fini korumak ve su\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00f6nlemek, g\u00f6\u00e7menler dahil toplumun b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fcyelerinin ortak \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131d\u0131r. Bu nedenle su\u00e7la m\u00fccadelede hangi ko\u015fullar\u0131n riski art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, hangilerinin azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamam\u0131z gerekiyor. E\u011fitim, istihdam, bar\u0131nma, sosyal entegrasyon ve su\u00e7un yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7evresel ko\u015fullar bu bak\u0131mdan ara\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmaya de\u011fer alanlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

G\u00f6\u00e7menlerin su\u00e7 istatistiklerindeki oran\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilirken ya\u015f, cinsiyet, gelir, e\u011fitim ve ya\u015fan\u0131lan b\u00f6lge gibi de\u011fi\u015fkenler dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. G\u00f6\u00e7, Avrupa\u2019da son y\u0131llar\u0131n en tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 siyasi ve toplumsal …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":4998,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[114],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-guncel"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/academicsolidarity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/20261024Criminality.png?fit=380%2C358","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/academicsolidarity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/academicsolidarity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/academicsolidarity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/academicsolidarity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/academicsolidarity.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5003"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/academicsolidarity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5003\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5005,"href":"http:\/\/academicsolidarity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5003\/revisions\/5005"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/academicsolidarity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4998"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/academicsolidarity.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/academicsolidarity.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/academicsolidarity.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}