The migration issue in Germany is currently at a significant turning point, both in terms of the numbers and the political landscape. In 2024, Germany reached its highest level of forced returns (Abschiebung) in recent years. 20,084 people were registered as deportations throughout the year, and a new wave of deportations of 11,807 people occurred in the first half of 2025 (https://www.bundestag.de/presse/hib/kurzmeldungen-1109918). This increase is paralleled by the acceleration of voluntary returns: with REAG/GARP, approximately 10,225 registered voluntary returns were made in 2024, and more than 10,000 people left the country voluntarily through state support programs. Voluntary returns reached approximately 24,600 in the first half of the year (https://mediendienst-integration.de/flucht-asyl/abschiebungen.html). This situation reflects a policy that has been hardened by anti-immigrant rhetoric.
However, the situation is not just one-sided. The German economy faces an existential crisis in many sectors without the contribution of immigrants. The number of foreign-born employees was measured at 6.3 million by the end of 2024, accounting for approximately 16.1 percent of total employment. Institutional analyses suggest that Germany needs a net immigrant workforce of approximately 400,000 each year (https://mediendienst-integration.de/migration/arbeitskraefte.html). In other words, harsh border policies and anti-immigrant rhetoric create a serious economic dilemma. Positions filled by immigrants (care, healthcare, construction, the service sector, and many technical professions) are considered irreplaceable.
A different dynamic is at play in the political arena. The ruling party and other major parties tend to align with the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which positions itself as an alternative by adopting an anti-immigration approach. However, political science research shows that mainstream parties’ adoption of the radical right’s framework gives the radical right an agenda and legitimacy, ultimately creating a legitimacy effect rather than persuading voters. From this perspective, an approach that seeks to “prevent” criticism of the AfD through anti-immigrant strategies risks, on the contrary, underscoring racist and exclusionary rhetoric (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/18/german-far-right-setting-agenda-as-opponents-amplify-its-ideas-study-finds).
Germany’s current situation faces a twofold problem: On the one hand, the increasing repatriation and voluntary departure rates of the immigrant population, coupled with the tightening of immigration policies, and on the other, the importance of immigrants in the economy, make it clear that their place will not be easily filled. This contradictory outlook signals a breaking point in the country’s migration and integration strategy. The ruling parties’ soft or temporary implementation of anti-immigrant policies to protect their own prestige and standing against the AfD is unsustainable, both economically and socially.
The real benefit lies in developing transparent and inclusive mechanisms for managing migration, rather than anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies. Rapid recognition processes, predictable and fair pathways for labor migration, and programs that support local integration… These can increase immigrants’ contributions to the country while ensuring their progress without undermining public safety and social cohesion (https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/arbeitsmarkt/einwanderer-mangelberufe-wirtschaft-100.html). Racist and exclusionary rhetoric makes it difficult for doctors, nurses, technicians, and educated workers from diverse backgrounds, such as Turkey, Syria, and Eritrea, to integrate. However, considering economic and demographic needs, such an integrated approach is more logical and sustainable for Germany. The critical question for Germany today is: Should we tighten immigration policies, echoing the record number of repatriations and the rise in voluntary returns, or should we restructure and transform migration into an opportunity? The answer seems clear, given the available data: tightening the levy may be a temporary response but could harm both the economy and social cohesion in the long run. On the other hand, an approach that makes migration manageable, promotes integration, and recognizes the value of labor would be both a rational and ethical choice for Germany.
