Developed countries are currently facing two major and interconnected demographic transformations simultaneously. On the one hand, the population is rapidly aging, fertility rates are falling, and life expectancy is increasing; on the other hand, these countries are increasingly receiving immigration, and their social structures are becoming more diverse. Although these two processes are often discussed under separate headings, they are in reality parts of a single major transformation that simultaneously challenges the functioning of states, welfare systems, and the social contract.
The issue of aging is reflected most starkly in the numbers. While the proportion of the working-age population is decreasing, the proportion of the retired and elderly population is increasing. This has a direct impact on many areas, including pension funds and healthcare systems. Systems that finance pensions and healthcare expenses with taxes and contributions paid by workers are becoming increasingly fragile as the demographic balance is disrupted. In most European countries and across the OECD, it is predicted that the elderly dependency ratio will increase sharply in the coming decades. Simply put, this means fewer workers will have to finance a greater number of elderly people (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/SEPDF/cache/80393.pdf).
This situation creates significant pressure on pension systems. While measures such as raising the retirement age, increasing contribution rates, or relatively reducing pension payments are technically possible, each generates political and social tensions. Moreover, as the proportion of the elderly population among the electorate increases, implementing such reforms becomes even more difficult. The pension system functions not only as a financial mechanism but also as a relationship of intergenerational solidarity and trust. When this trust is undermined, the social contract itself is called into question.
The impact of an aging population is not limited to pensions. The need for health and long-term care services increases with age, creating permanent burdens on public budgets. At the same time, there is a risk of labor market contraction. When fewer people are working, the potential for economic growth decreases, and financing public services becomes even more difficult. Therefore, many countries are trying to increase women’s employment, encourage older individuals to work longer, and develop a growth model based on productivity increases (https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/11/pensions-at-a-glance-2025_76510fe4/full-report/demographic-old-age-to-working-age-ratio_25476b96.html).
One of the most striking examples of this demographic shift is Japan. Japan has a population structure characterized by low fertility and high life expectancy, resulting in a population that is not only aging but also declining in absolute terms. Projections for 2050 indicate that the country’s social structure, labor market, rural areas, and urban planning will all be reshaped in response to this reality of contraction and aging. The Japanese example also serves as a time machine for Europe; many problems that many countries will face decades from now have already become part of daily life in Japan. In short, Japan is the country that says “The future has arrived” for Europe (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/12/29/japan/society/japan-2050-predections-depopulation/).
One of the most important balancing mechanisms developed against aging is migration. Working-age migrants can support the labor market, broaden the tax base, and help address chronic labor shortages in certain sectors. Therefore, Europe, North America, and other developed regions have experienced intense immigration in recent years. In the European Union today, approximately one-tenth of the population consists of people born in non-EU countries. In OECD countries, the number of foreign-born people exceeds hundreds of millions (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=EU_population_diversity_by_citizenship_and_country_of_birth).
However, the issue of migration is often addressed within a narrow and reductionist framework. In public discourse and politics, migration is often discussed through the lens of communities from Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, predominantly identified as Muslim. However, global migration flows are far more complex. Asia, Latin America, and Africa are significant regions of migration, with diverse contexts. Key determinants of migration include numerous factors such as war, political oppression, economic inequality, climate change, education, and job opportunities. Religious identity is only a small and often overemphasized part of this process (https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int/msite/wmr-2024-interactive/).
There is no definitive answer to the question of whether migration is a solution for aging societies. When supported by the right policies, migration can mitigate the economic effects of aging. However, when integration remains weak, migration can generate new social inequalities, exclusion, and political tensions. Without strong policies in areas such as education, language learning, housing, equitable access to the labor market, and combating discrimination, the potential of migration is largely wasted. Therefore, the determining factor is not the quantity of migration, but the extent to which migrants can participate in social and economic life. For countries sending migrants, the picture takes on a different dimension. The forced or semi-forced migration of academics, students, and qualified professionals, in particular, leads to a significant brain drain in these countries. While universities, healthcare systems, and public institutions weaken, receiving countries can benefit from this human resource. However, this process is not inherently fair or efficient. Problems with diploma recognition, precarious employment, and loss of professional status remain common experiences for qualified individuals migrating.
At this point, demographic transformation ceases to be merely a matter of population numbers. It also represents a global redistribution of knowledge production, academic freedom, and institutional capacity. Discussions on aging and migration directly intersect with questions of forced migration, academic solidarity, and equal participation. Receiving societies must learn to live with diversity and support it with a fair integration policy. Societies sending migrants, on the other hand, face the long-term consequences of losing their human resources. How this transformation is managed will determine not only today’s economic balances but also the future of social peace and academic freedom. When managed correctly, demographic transformation can create opportunities for global solidarity; when managed incorrectly, it prepares the ground for long-term crises in both sending and receiving societies. In this context, there can be both a good and a bad scenario:
The good scenario: Developed countries, in response to the aging problem, view the migrants they receive not only as temporary elements filling labor shortages but also as long-term social actors. Effective integration policies, education, and academic development opportunities support the potential of migrants while fostering egalitarian and solidarity-based relations with countries of origin. Diaspora networks, academic collaborations, and return channels contribute to the reconstruction of the human potential lost by migrant-sending societies. This reciprocal interaction forms the basis of a sustainable and stable system for both receiving and sending countries.
Worst-case scenario: When flawed integration policies, economic stress, and identity politics converge, the migrant population becomes the scapegoat for societal problems. Social exclusion deepens, democratic norms weaken, and political polarization increases. Simultaneously, brain drain in sending countries accelerates institutional decay and increases societal vulnerabilities. This bidirectional instability increases the risk of internal conflict in both receiving and sending societies, while also significantly increasing the likelihood of regional and even international tensions.
